THE African Union (AU) held elections on February 15 to choose its next chairperson, who will lead the Commission in carrying out its mission — whatever that is.
Djibouti’s Foreign minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf was elected with 33 votes in the seventh round of voting defeating perennial political loser, Kenya’s Raila Odinga.
Yes, dear reader, it took seven rounds of casting ballots to produce a winner.
More than producing the next chief of the AU, the election once again exposed the deep fractures within the continent’s leadership.
What should have been a unifying exercise has instead highlighted regional rivalries, linguistic divides, and the enduring influence of external powers.
As Africa grapples with an increasingly volatile global order, the election process revealed more than just the next AU Commission chair; it laid bare the profound challenges facing African unity and the continent's geopolitical position, or lack of it.
Consensus is a distant mirage
The contest for AU Commission chair is rarely a straightforward affair, but the latest election saw an intensification of political manoeuvring and strategic alliances.
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Behind the diplomatic niceties lies a fierce competition between regional blocs, each vying to assert its influence over the AU’s agenda.
As candidates emerged, the divisions became increasingly apparent — not just in terms of individual personalities, but in the competing interests.
Several rounds of voting underscored the difficulty of reaching a consensus, reflecting both personal rivalries and deeper political fault lines.
This process has revealed a troubling reality: Africa's quest for collective leadership is increasingly undermined by the balkanisation of the continent according to which language of coloniser each country speaks, and which regional club they belong to.
Old divides, new tensions
At the heart of the AU Commission chair election lies the long-standing fault lines that continue to shape African diplomacy. The Anglophone-Francophone divide remains a potent source of tension.
Former French colonies often align with Paris' interests, while Anglophone countries push back against perceived neo-colonial influence.
This rivalry played out starkly during the election, with candidates from French-speaking Djibouti and English-speaking Kenya facing off in a proxy battle for continental direction.
Beyond linguistic divisions, the political geography rifts between Sub-Saharan Africa and Arab North Africa also loom large. Northern African countries, with their closer ties to the Middle East and Europe, often view themselves as distinct from their southern counterparts.
These differences extend into AU policy priorities, where issues such as migration and security are approached from vastly different perspectives.
Regional blocs further complicate consensus-building. The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) remains a formidable voting bloc, often at odds with the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) and the East African Community (EAC).
These organisations operate with their own agendas, resulting in a fragmented approach to continental governance. The DRC conflict, for instance, has heightened tensions between Sadc and EAC, with each bloc supporting competing visions for resolving the crisis.
Meanwhile, the rise of military governments in the Sahel and West Africa has exposed fault lines regarding democratic legitimacy and governance, further muddying the waters.
No foreign policy and no voice
The AU's internal fragmentation is occurring against the backdrop of a rapidly changing global order. As Africa struggles with internal cohesion, external actors are advancing their agendas with little resistance.
The return of a Trump-style, transactional foreign policy in the United States, a spooked European Union (EU), which increasingly seeks to chart its own course independent of United States (US) influence, the rise of a multipolar world with growing Chinese and Russian influence, and the reconfiguration of global trade place Africa at a critical juncture.
Africa is touted as the next arena for economic growth with the youngest and fastest growing population against a contrast of dwindling population growth in Europe and Asia. Its growth potential is also anchored on the fact that it is experiencing an unprecedented rate of urbanisation, with more than half of Africa's population, meaning over one billion people, expected to live in cities by 2040.
Add the rich natural resource base, including precious stones and strategic mineral deposits that are driving the technological advancements from smartsphones, micro-chips to renewable energy.
Africa is still on the menu
Yet, the AU lacks a coherent foreign policy to navigate these shifts and ensure Africa is not just on the menu of global economic and political interests but rather also has a seat at the table.
China's Belt and Road Initiative, a Chinese strategy to invest in infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and Europe with the goal of improving trade and economic growth continues to shape African infrastructure.
On the parallel, the EU’s Global Gateway is increasingly countering China with its own new European strategy to boost smart, clean and secure links in digital, energy and transport infrastructure and to strengthen health, education and research systems across the world.
On the other dimension, Russian mercenaries operate with impunity in conflict zones such as the Central African Republic and Mali.
Meanwhile, African leaders have for decades failed to articulate a unified position on global issues such as climate change, digital governance, and security cooperation.
Despite its growing demographic and economic importance, Africa remains reactive rather than proactive in global affairs.
Nevertheless, there are signs that Africa is beginning to find its collective voice. Initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) signal an ambition to shape the continent’s economic destiny.
But, without a coherent foreign policy and a unified diplomatic front, Africa remains on the margins of conversations shaping global politics and the future of the continent itself.
The guns are growing louder
The AU made a bold commitment in 2013 to “silence all guns” by 2020 expressing a determination to “to achieve the goal of a conflict-free Africa, to make peace a reality for all our people and to rid the continent of wars, civil conflicts, human rights violations, humanitarian disasters and violent conflicts, and to prevent genocide”.
By 2020, this initiative was extended to 2030 because the continent was as close to achieving this milestone as is the second coming of Jesus.
In fact, the guns have since grown louder despite these commitments as conflict zones continue to multiply. The new AU chief faces two major conflicts one in Sudan and in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
From the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, armed conflicts, military coups, and political unrest remain persistent challenges. The inability to enforce peace agreements and hold perpetrators of violence accountable undermines the AU's credibility.
Without stronger mechanisms and political will, the dream of a conflict-free Africa remains distant.
A crisis of multilateral credibility
The AU itself is facing a crisis of credibility. Once heralded as a platform to project African solidarity and independence, the institution increasingly appears to be a stage for narrow national interests.
Many African citizens view the AU as disconnected from their everyday struggles, and scepticism about its effectiveness is growing.
Moreover, the credibility of multilateral institutions globally is under strain. Organisations such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation are struggling to maintain legitimacy amid rising nationalism and great-power competition.
The AU is not immune to these pressures. Its failure to resolve key crises — from the conflict in Ethiopia to coups in West Africa — raises doubts about its capacity to act decisively.
The sober view
A polarised African leadership will continue to relegate the continent to a passive role on the global stage. As the saying goes, "if you are not at the table, you are on the menu."
Without unity, Africa risks being the subject rather than the shaper of global policy. Divisions among African leaders weaken the AU's ability to negotiate effectively and advocate for African interests.
To break this cycle, African leaders must prioritise a collective agenda over regional and national parochialism and stop kow-towing to the whims and caprices of their former colonial masters.
A more coherent AU foreign policy is essential to navigate the complexities of the 21st-century world. African unity cannot remain a rhetorical aspiration — it must become a political reality if the continent is to assert its rightful place in the global order. The AU Commission chair elections may be over, but the work of bridging Africa’s divides is only just beginning.
Whether African leaders will rise to the occasion remains an open question — one with profound implications for the continent's future. For now, the African Union remains the sick man of the global south!
This is my sober view; I take no prisoners.
- Dumani is an independent political analyst. He writes in his personal capacity.
