As the Global South embraces Artificial Intelligence (AI), it is essential to review whether and how its countries benefitted from previous technology revolutions. More significantly, why and how will AI’s impact be any different? What is new under the sun?
The First Industrial Revolution (1760–1870) utilised water and steam power to mechanise production. The Second Industrial Revolution (1870–1965) used electric power to facilitate mass production, whereas the Third Industrial Revolution (1965–2011), commonly referred to as the digital revolution, employed electronics and Information Communication Technology (ICT) to automate production. The AI-driven Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), which began in 2011 and continues to the present, builds on the digital revolution.
Most countries in the Global South did not substantially benefit from the initial three industrial revolutions. The period from 1619 to 1865 was marked by slavery, and from 1884 to 1994, colonialism dominated many of these least industrialised economies.
Moreover, neocolonialism and imperialism have persisted in these regions even during the so-called post-colonial period. Essentially, inhabitants of these countries have been mere objects and victims through the earlier industrial epochs.
However, the AI-driven 4IR presents an unprecedented and unique opportunity for the Global South to exert its influence, assume agency, actively participate, and leverage technology to achieve inclusive development and shared prosperity.
What is the Global South?
This classification refers to a socio economic and geopolitical concept rather than a precise geographical location. It describes emerging economies and countries that are least industrialised. Consequently, the Global South is also known as the developing world or as a grouping of developing economies.
The Global South broadly comprises Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia (excluding Israel, Japan, and South Korea), and Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand).
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The Global North includes North America, Europe, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The world’s highly-industrialised countries constitute the Global North, whereas the Global South comprises emerging and least industrialised economies. The characteristics, challenges, similarities, and differences of countries in the Global South should be thoroughly discussed.
Indeed, there is quite some heterogeneity in the Global South. Asian states such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia are far more advanced in terms of policy and governance infrastructure, economic productivity, manufacturing capacity, and, of course, the development and adoption of AI systems compared to countries in Africa and Latin America.
However, the shared history and similar economic circumstances in the 1950s and 1960s for most countries in the Global South make it imperative that these countries be studied together, lessons be drawn, and shared.
As a starting point, it is instructive to explore and interrogate the efficacy and meaning of the expressions “inclusive development” and “shared prosperity”.
Inclusive development
Development is a multi-faceted concept encompassing economic, social, political, and environmental aspects. It is often associated with progress in areas such as income, education, health, human rights and industrialisation.
The objective is to improve a population’s standard of living through factors such as wealth creation and distribution, social differentiation, industrial transformation, and economic growth. AI can play a critical role in achieving such ambitions and aspirations.
However, given its history of rabid colonisation and exploitation by the Global North, extreme inequalities, and abject poverty, the Global South requires a special type of development — inclusive development.
This emphasis seeks to ensure that the benefits of development are shared broadly across all segments of society, particularly the marginalised and vulnerable.
As already stated, there are five broad but related categories of development: economic, social, political, environmental, and human.
It is prudent to outline these dimensions briefly. Economic development is a key aspect of general development. It speaks to growth in income and wealth, industrialisation and modernisation, and poverty reduction. Indeed, economic development often involves an increase in the standard of living, measured by gross domestic product (GDP) or gross national income (GNI), and GDP per capita.
The transition from agrarian-based economies to industrial and service based ones is a key indicator of economic development.
Although this transition is a measure of economic development, it is also a form of economic transformation — the continuous process of moving labour and other resources from lower to higher productivity sectors (structural change) and raising within sector productivity growth. Of course, a key objective of economic development is to reduce poverty and ensure equitable distribution of resources.
Social development is closely linked to and interconnected with economics. It includes education, healthcare, gender equality, and social inclusion.
Access to quality education is essential for development, empowering individuals and improving social mobility. Improvements in healthcare, including access to medical services and better health outcomes, are essential.
Development involves ensuring equal opportunities for all genders, including access to education, employment, and political participation. There must be efforts to integrate marginalised communities and ensure that all members of society can participate fully in social and economic life.
Socio-economic development is pursued within a political context. Political development, a crucial component of overall development, encompasses good governance, democratic participation, and respect for human rights. It often entails strengthening institutions and promoting transparency, accountability, and the rule of law.
A key aspect of political development is ensuring that citizens have a voice in political processes and that their rights are protected.
Upholding human rights and ensuring that all individuals can live free from oppression and discrimination are central to development.
Sustainable development demands acute attention to the environment and climate change. This brings to the fore environmental development, which includes sustainability initiatives, resource management, and climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Within the context of current global imperatives, development must emphatically embrace sustainability, meaning that economic and social progress should not come at the expense of the environment or future generations.
Effective management of natural resources, including water, land, and energy, is essential for sustainable development.
Developing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change is increasingly seen as a critical aspect of development.
It is instructive to appraise human development as a standalone concept. The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index that measures a country’s development by considering life expectancy, education, per capita income, the Gini coefficient, and other factors related to wellness and health. Furthermore, expanding people’s capabilities and opportunities to lead lives they value is important.
Economist Amartya Sen proposed this approach to human development within the broader thesis articulated in his seminal book “Development as Freedom.”
An additional metric that emphasises human centricity in development is the Happiness Index.
This measure is used to assess the well-being and happiness of a population. Unlike traditional economic indicators, such as GDP and GDP per capita, which focus solely on economic performance, the Happiness Index takes a broader view by considering factors that contribute to overall life satisfaction and well-being.
In summary, it can be argued that three broad types of development are essential in the Global South.
This first is sustainable development, which seeks to balance economic, social, and environmental needs to ensure that development is sustainable for future generations.
The second is inclusive development that ensures that the benefits of development are shared broadly across all segments of society, particularly the marginalised and vulnerable.
The third is community development, which focuses on improving the conditions of a specific community, often through local initiatives and participation.
There are various theories of development. Modernisation Theory suggests that development follows a linear path from traditional to modern societies, often through industrialisation and economic growth.
Dependency theory posits that underdevelopment in certain countries stems from their exploitation and dependence on more developed nations.
Sustainable Development Theory focuses on balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability and social equity.
There are various challenges to development in the Global South. Economic and social inequality can hinder development and lead to social unrest. Corruption, incompetence, and poor governance undermine development by diverting resources away from public goods and services, underutilising capacity, and leading to a lack of accountability.
While globalisation and technology can drive economic growth, they can also exacerbate inequalities, lead to cultural homogenisation, and create a digital divide. Political instability and conflict can disrupt development efforts, leading to setbacks in economic and social progress. Indeed, there are potential obstacles to the developmental ambition and trajectory in the Global South.
Inclusive development is a complex and dynamic process that involves enhancing various aspects of human life. It is not just about economic growth. It is also about ensuring that growth is inclusive, sustainable, and equitable, leading to a better quality of life for all.
Indeed, at the heart of inclusive development economics lies the objective of balancing competing needs and devising a development trajectory that caters to the majority, both currently and in the future.
Shared prosperity
Prosperity and development are linked. In fact, they overlap extensively. Prosperity is a state of abundance, flourishing, success, and good fortune.
It encompasses various dimensions of well-being, including economic wealth, social stability, health, and overall quality of life. Indeed, prosperity is often associated with material abundance, but it also includes non-material aspects such as happiness, satisfaction, and the ability to lead a fulfilling life.
In this discussion, the term prosperity is used in addition to the term development because many developed and developing countries are characterised by outstanding and impressive economic growth. However, that economic performance is not shared among the general population. This is hugely problematic.
Africa and the rest of the Global South require inclusive development, leading to shared prosperity. GDP per capita is more important than GDP. The Gini coefficient is more important than the GDP growth rate.
In a country, the size of the middle class as a percentage of the population is a critical metric that should be closely monitored and tracked. However, this is never done. Only traditional economic metrics such as GDP and GDP per capita are measured and analysed.
It is instructive and prudent to note that key countries in the Global North, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, have not achieved inclusive development or shared prosperity. In fact, they are not wired to do so.
Hence, these economies are not the source of inspiration for the Global South as it embraces AI.
Emerging and least industrialised countries must use AI differently to achieve inclusive development and shared prosperity.
Unfortunately, the Global North offers neither lessons nor best practices on this ambitious journey.
The Gini coefficient, also known as the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a statistical measure of economic inequality within a population. It measures the income dispersion or wealth distribution among a country’s citizens. The Gini coefficient is one of the most frequently used measures of economic inequality. The coefficient takes values between zero and one. A coefficient of zero indicates perfect equality in the distribution of income or wealth within a population. A coefficient of one represents perfect inequality or absolute disparity, where one person in a population receives all the wealth or assets. In contrast, the rest of the population gets nothing.
South Africa has the world’s highest Gini coefficient for income, at 0.67. This explains the country's perennial challenges of staggering inequality, abject poverty, and unrelenting unemployment despite being Africa’s most industrialised country and biggest economy by GDP. Other African countries with high coefficients include Namibia, Zambia, and Mozambique, which have coefficients of 0.59, 0.57, and 0.54, respectively. Countries in Europe, especially those in the Scandinavian region, have significantly lower numbers. They range between 0.24 and 0.27. Among the most developed economies, the United States has a high level of inequality with a Gini coefficient of 0.41. This highlights the importance of achieving shared prosperity. The economic growth in the United States is not inclusive. China’s coefficient is 0.38, and India’s is 0.35. Russia’s is similarly relatively low at 0.37. Brazil, like South Africa, has a much higher level of inequality, with a coefficient of 0.53.
Shared prosperity refers to ensuring that the benefits of economic growth and development are broadly distributed across all segments of society, particularly among the less well-off. It emphasises not just the overall growth of an economy but also how it is shared among different income groups, focusing on reducing inequality and improving the living standards of the poorest segments of the population. This is the shared prosperity agenda for the Global South. There are seven measurable interrelated dimensions of this ambition.
These are inclusive economic growth, equitable access to opportunities, social safety nets, sustainable development, good governance and institutions, empowerment and voice, and measurement of shared prosperity.
As already intimated, shared prosperity involves fostering inclusive economic growth, a crucial aspect that benefits all members of society, not just the wealthy or privileged. This includes creating jobs, improving wages, and expanding access to economic opportunities for marginalised and disadvantaged groups. A key goal of shared prosperity is to narrow the income gap between the rich and the poor by ensuring that lower income groups experience income growth at the same rate or faster than overall economic growth.
Ensuring equal access to quality education for all segments of society, regardless of income, gender, ethnicity, or location, is crucial for shared prosperity. Education empowers individuals to improve their economic prospects. Economic growth, poverty, inequality, and unemployment are linked. This has been poorly understood. Economic growth that overlooks poverty, inequality, and unemployment is unsustainable. On the other hand, poverty, inequality, and unemployment hinder economic growth. The best example of this interdependence is South Africa. Failure to address the perennial challenges of poverty, inequality, and unemployment has led to lower economic growth.
Indeed, one of the most potent tools for economic growth is quality education, characterised by quantifiable skills, competencies, and capabilities. This training must be anchored by entrepreneurial capacity and problem solving skills. With this academic exposure, young people will become more employable, while others can start their own businesses. This will lead to poverty reduction, wealth creation, increased employment opportunities, and enhanced equality.
Access to affordable and quality healthcare is essential to ensure that all individuals can lead healthy, productive lives, which is fundamental to shared prosperity. Policies that promote job creation, fair wages, and decent working conditions for all workers, including those in low income or informal sectors, are central to shared prosperity.
Social safety nets, including unemployment benefits, food assistance, and healthcare subsidies, play a crucial role in protecting the most vulnerable populations from falling into poverty and ensuring a minimum standard of living. Adequate pension systems and social security benefits help ensure that older adults and those unable to work can live with dignity and respect.
Shared prosperity includes ensuring that economic growth is sustainable and does not come at the expense of the environment. Protecting natural resources and addressing climate change are critical to ensuring that future generations can also enjoy prosperity. Building resilience to economic, social, and environmental shocks – such as economic crises, pandemics, and natural disasters – is essential for maintaining shared prosperity.
Transparency and accountability are essential for driving shared prosperity, and good governance is vital. Transparent and accountable institutions ensure that public resources are used effectively and that all citizens have access to public services. The rule of law ensures that everyone has equal access to justice and that property rights and contracts are enforced. These are essential for economic participation and shared prosperity.
Unempowered and voiceless people cannot enjoy shared prosperity. Ensuring that all citizens have a voice in the decision making processes that affect their lives is a key aspect of shared prosperity. This includes promoting democratic participation and protecting human rights. Empowering communities to participate in development initiatives and decisions ensures that the benefits of growth align with the people’s needs and priorities.
That which is measured gets done. If you cannot measure it, you cannot manage it. Shared prosperity must be measured. The World Bank’s Shared Prosperity Indicator measures the annualised growth rate of income or consumption of the bottom 40% of a country’s population. It provides a clear picture of how well the poorest segments of society are benefitting from economic growth. A common measure of income inequality, the Gini coefficient helps assess income distribution across a population. A lower Gini coefficient indicates a more equal distribution of income, which is a key goal of shared prosperity.
Achieving shared prosperity in the Global South presents challenges. Global trends have revealed an increasing trend of income inequality in many countries, which can undermine shared prosperity by concentrating wealth in the hands of a few. In many parts of the Global South, poverty is deeply entrenched, and structural barriers such as lack of education, healthcare, and economic opportunities can prevent the poorest from improving their situation. While globalisation and technological advancements have created economic opportunities, they have also led to job displacement and wage stagnation for some workers, exacerbating inequality. Corruption, weak institutions, and social discrimination can prevent marginalised groups from accessing the benefits of economic growth.
The Global South doesn’t just want development. It seeks inclusive development. The economic growth must be shared. People in developing and least industrialised countries don’t just desire prosperity. They demand shared prosperity – the creation of societies where everyone can improve their lives and benefit from economic growth. Indeed, opportunity economies must characterise the Global South. This involves reducing inequality, ensuring equitable access to resources and opportunities, and promoting sustainable development. Achieving inclusive economic development and shared prosperity requires concerted efforts from governments, regional economic blocs, the private sector, civil society, and international organisations. This dynamic ecosystem is essential for creating scalable, impactful, inclusive, fair and empowering policies and systems.
The questions are: What is the potential role of AI in igniting and powering the pursuit of inclusive development and shared prosperity in the Global South? In which economic sectors, and in what ways? What are the use cases, AI tools, expected impact, and associated risks?
- Mutambara is the director and full professor of the Institute for the Future of Knowledge at the University of Johannesburg in South Africa. He is also an independent technology and strategy consultant and former deputy prime minister of Zimbabwe.
