ACCORDING to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency's (Zimstat) population and housing census of 2022, the country currently has about 16,2 million inhabitants.
Of these 16,2 million; 67,7% are below the age of 35 years, whilst 5,8% are above the age of 65 years. The young population can be viewed as a strength as it provides labour force and skills for the various local economic sectors.
Undeniably, the old (65 years and above) are also a virtue in their own right, as they make up the heritage (roots) of the country, without whom it would not have been established.
However, the 5,8% figure of those 65 years and over, is very noteworthy because it implies that Zimbabwe's population will soon qualify to be an aged population.
This is a huge difference from the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, which has older persons (over 65 years) who make up only 3% of their populations. An aged population is one which has 7%, or more, of persons over 65 years.
In terms of geography, most locals live in the rural areas. However, a number of villagers are migrating to the urban areas, mostly in search of jobs. This has led to growing urbanisation, whilst the villages are becoming increasingly depopulated.
Last week's article presented an analysis which described the various sub-sections of Zimbabwe’s population. That analysis went on to argue that the country's population of 16,2 million is very small. It (the analysis) went on to explain the negative issues associated with a small population of that size.
These include high costs of production for local companies which serve a small market (population), lack of negotiation power in international trade, a small military budget and army, reduced political influence internationally, fewer innovations due to there being only a small number of researchers at any given time, etc.
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On the other hand, today's article will discuss how Zimbabwe can provide for and reap the greatest benefits from its current population structure.
Way forward
If Japan with its 37,8 million hectares of land could manage to have 125 million people on an area smaller than Zimbabwe (with 39 million hectares of land), then it is only reasonable to suggest that Zimbabwe's peak population should be in a similar range to Japan.
It is, therefore, realistic to suggest that Zimbabwe should strive to have a population of between 100-125 million people, within the next 60 years.
This is a figure which seems suitable for the country, in order to grow its influence and enjoy all other advantages of large populations, as explained in the previous article. That would mean that Zimstat's initial prediction of a Zimbabwean population of only 21,5 million people within the next 18 years will need to be greatly surpassed.
The changes, which are expected to occur within the country’s different age groups (through time) also need to be adequately planned for. More details on these arguments are provided below:
Firstly, the government needs to commit towards improving the country's laws and business environment, so that the economy can operate at optimal (high and productive) levels.
The stability of the economy will enable locals to marry and reproduce, within or outside of marriage. It is common knowledge that poverty and high costs of living, result in fewer births within a country.
The fall in fertility rates due to the inability of people to afford children has been noted in United States of America, South Korea, China and almost all over the rest of the world. Therefore, if the Zimbabwean economy were to provide high quality jobs for most citizens that would result in a faster growth rate of the population.
If the economy were to perform exceptionally well, a significant portion of the Zimbabwean diaspora would also return to the country to participate in both its economic and demographic (population) growth.
It is also essential to ensure that the country's economic activity is not concentrated in a few large cities. This is because such a situation can lead to high costs of living.
The concentration of economic activities in a few large cities can drive up property prices in those major cities in particular (due to high demand for property).
Since much of the country’s economic activity would be flowing from those few cities which have high costs of living that will eventually cause the whole nation's goods and services to also be expensive. Therefore, an economy should ideally be geographically diversified, as much as possible. Countries such as South Africa provide a decent example of geographical diversification of an economy, particularly with regards to urban areas.
South Africa’s economic activity is spread out throughout the whole country, such that smaller towns which are far from the capital city of Pretoria are able to sustain hundreds of thousands of people. Due to that South African goods and services are generally world-famous for being affordable.
Once people are in employment, it is also essential to ensure that they do not over-work. This is because long working hours contribute to falling birth rates, since they make it harder for people to date (to fall in love) and reproduce.
That means, labour laws should particularly ensure that workers do not work for more than six days in a week and their working hours should not be excessively long.
Another point to note is also that, currently, all high-income countries are experiencing sharp declines in their birth rates, such that they are all set to witness their populations stagnate or decline before 2050.
However, among them, only Israel which generally prohibits work for at least one and a half days each week has birth rates which will result in a growth of its population by 2050.
In Israel, all workers are entitled to a minimum of 36 consecutive hours of rest per week, which typically falls on Friday and Saturday due to religious observances (such as the Sabbath day). This difference from other rich countries might possibly be the reason why Israel's fertility rates are higher than the rest of the developed world.
So, a healthy work-life balance is crucial for any country which needs to increase its population numbers.
Direct “natalist” (pro-birth) policies can also be implemented by the government. For example, working women who give birth to two or more children can be charged 5% less on their personal income tax. This will encourage more working women to increase their fertility rates, thereby, raising the country’s population.
The aged (over 65 year olds) population in Zimbabwe will need to be catered for through universal pensions and a strengthening of the public healthcare system. The fact that they now make up 5,8% of the population shows that they are now significant enough to recognise as a sub-section of the population which needs special attention.
A universal pension of US$30 or more may be given to all citizens who are aged. This would be helpful, especially with the background that most pensioners who worked in the last two decades, were working in the informal sector.
Local vocational institutions will need to train community health workers, who can adequately provide care for older persons (geriatric care), and spread awareness on the importance of healthy lifestyles for older persons within the communities.
That awareness may lead to a reduced demand for public healthcare by older persons, as they would be encouraged to eat healthful foods, exercise and implement preventive measures for several diseases.
Where possible, provisions should be made in the law, which ensure that both private and government entities provide preferential treatment for the aged. For instance, where there are long queues, older persons should be served at dedicated service points which enable them to be attended to swifter than the rest of the young population.
For their mental well-being, public broadcasters may need to include their entertainment needs as part of their programming.
Although the portion of older persons is growing, Action Aid Zimbabwe, insists that a huge 67,7% of Zimbabwe’s population is still under the age of 35. In order to utilise these young people, Zimbabwe will need to promote the uptake of IT, STEM subjects, and innovation in schools and at university.
Since young people have a stronger capacity to learn new concepts and processes more easily, focusing on such educational approaches would likely reap positive benefits.
Growing competences in such fields as STEM or innovation, in general, would result in an economy which produces goods and services that other nations can also make use of.
In that case, the country's exports would increase. The government may also need to make arrangements with other countries, so that it can export some of Zimbabwe’s mid-level skills (human resources) to nations such as; South Korea, China, Japan, Germany and Russia, whose populations are ageing and in need of youthful workers. #
The remittances made by these human resource exports (Zimbabwean workers in foreign countries) would provide much needed foreign currency and additional demand for goods and services within the economy. Engagements on such issues can even be immediately initiated.
It is important to emphasise that the Zimbabwean government should not export its brightest minds to other countries.
This is because that would negatively impact on domestic economic performance.
Sophisticated skills should be retained in the country, so that they contribute to economic development.
The decline in rural populations in Zimbabwe should also result in the setting up of stakeholder groups which can discuss the various ways in which villagers can be relocated, such that most of them are settled close to their service centres (growth points).
Some schools, shops and other facilities would need to also be merged, in that process.
This would enable the provision of public services (schools, clinics, roads, electricity, etc) to be economical and would also stimulate industrial activity in the villages.
Closer collaborations with larger regional nations such as South Africa should also be encouraged. For example, local industries may be encouraged to go as far as engaging in cross-border cooperation with South African businesses, such as the sharing of production runs and innovation budgets.
The collaborative efforts of the two governments should also be promoted. Such a move would go a long way to minimise certain fixed and other costs, especially for Zimbabwe, which has both a small population and minimal financial capacity.
That could turn out to be one of the smartest ways to improve the international competitiveness of the two nations. It is crucial to remind the readers that although Zimbabwe does not have huge capacities which come with large populations, it produces some of the best intellectuals on the continent.
So, as Zimbabwe benefits from access to capacity, which South Africa can offer, it will in-turn apply its learned experts to also make the collaboration equally rewarding for South Africa.
Tutani is a political economy analyst. — [email protected]
