THE ongoing Zanu PF annual conference in Bulawayo presents a critical opportunity for the ruling party to address internal succession disputes that analysts warn are undermining Zimbabwe's economy.
Held under the theme “Industrialise and Modernise Towards the Attainment of Vision 2030”, the conference is taking place amid reports of tensions between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.
Mnangagwa, who came to power in 2017, is reportedly facing pressure from loyalists like Vice President Kembo Mohadi and Midlands Provincial Affairs minister Owen Ncube, who are advocating for an unconstitutional extension of his term, despite his assurances that he will step down in 2028.
This push for a third term has sparked controversy, as Zimbabwe’s constitution limits presidential terms to two five-year periods, making Mnangagwa’s current term his last.
Factional disputes within Zanu PF date back to the liberation struggle in the 1960s and were most recently highlighted by the 2017 military coup that ousted long-time leader Robert Mugabe and installed Mnangagwa as president.
These historical power struggles have had lasting economic repercussions, especially for Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector.
Currently, the country is grappling with severe economic challenges, including currency depreciation, high unemployment, plummeting industrial output, and a staggering national debt of US$20 billion.
The situation has been further worsened by an El Niño-induced drought, which has resulted in livestock deaths and significant electricity shortages due to low water levels at the Kariba Dam. In response, Mnangagwa’s government has sought US$2 billion in aid.
- Corruption Watch: Get scared, 2023 is coming
- Corruption Watch: Get scared, 2023 is coming
- Letters: Ensuring Africa’s food security through availability of quality seeds
- Is military's involvement in politics compatible with democracy?
Keep Reading
In its latest report, titled Succession: The Bane of Zanu PF and Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI) contends that factional battles have deeply divided the ruling party, hindering efforts to revive the economy.
“As Zanu PF approaches its 21st national people’s conference, scheduled for October 22-27 in Bulawayo, it is crucial to analyse its succession politics and implications,” the ZDI report states in the report.
“This conference is set against the backdrop of a brewing succession battle linked to President Mnangagwa’s potential third-term bid, supported by a faction within the party.
“The deep-rooted and structural succession challenges in Zanu PF and Zimbabwe have had multiplier effects particularly on the economy.
“There is general consensus that the fortunes of Zimbabwe are tied to the succession issue in Zanu PF and resolving the succession problem will remove the cloud of uncertainty and unpredictability that is currently engulfing Zimbabwe.”
Political analyst Reuben Mbofana contends that the Zanu PF conference presents Mnangagwa with a golden opportunity to display that he is an avid constitutionalist and puts national interests ahead of personal ambition.
He observed: “Mnangagwa needs to prove that he is a constitutionalist as he has been claiming. He needs to finally place the interests of the nation first.
“This is a grand opportunity for him to finally give Zimbabweans what they have not witnessed but longed for since the country attained its independence. This is a legacy Mnangagwa should leave Zimbabwe with.
“For this to happen, he needs to make it unequivocally clear to his supporters that he is stepping down at the end of his constitutional term in 2028. Yet the country continues to sink deeper and deeper into economic and political challenges.”
When Mnangagwa assumed office in 2017, he pledged to break away from Mugabe’s disastrous policies, positioning himself as a reformist and business-friendly leader capable of turning around Zimbabwe’s fortunes.
However, seven years later, the country remains mired in an economic crisis marked by power cuts, water shortages, high inflation, currency instability, and rampant unemployment.
Another political analyst, Rashweat Mukundu, was less optimistic about the outcome of the conference, predicting that it would be characterized by empty political rhetoric and that party elites would gloss over the country’s economic troubles.
“I do not have any high hopes for the conference, the party is hugely divided,” he said.
“They are unfocused and engaging in a war of attrition on the succession issue. More importantly and sadly for Zimbabweans, they are engaged in extensive looting, material and wealth acquisition at the expense of citizens.
“The best that Mnangagwa can do is to calm the ruling party, specifically on the succession issue and push a message of public service delivery and issues around the economy.
“He must address the problems that Zimbabwe is facing around the currency crisis, inflation, unemployment and drought.
“These are the issues which are of interest to Zimbabweans. Unfortunately, what we will see is more political rhetoric,” Mukundu said.
Analysts agree that resolving the party's internal conflicts and addressing economic challenges are critical for maintaining stability and fostering growth. If these disputes persist, they warned, Zimbabwe could face further instability and economic decline.
